El Gouna FC
Al Mokawloon Al Arab
The model leans Draw at 37%. Expected goals: El Gouna FC 0.76, Al Mokawloon Al Arab 0.82. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 69%. El Gouna FC won 0 of their last 3; Al Mokawloon Al Arab won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1El Gouna FC | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Mokawloon Al Arab | 33% | 3.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.76 – 0.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 79% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 0–020.7%
- 0–116.9%
- 1–015.7%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: El Gouna FC 0| El Gouna FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 21% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 36% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 23% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.