Tala'ea El Gaish
Al Mokawloon Al Arab
The model leans Al Mokawloon Al Arab at 37%. Expected goals: Tala'ea El Gaish 0.65, Al Mokawloon Al Arab 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 70%. Tala'ea El Gaish won 2 of their last 3; Al Mokawloon Al Arab won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tala'ea El Gaish | 23% | 4.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.66 | – | – | – |
| 2Al Mokawloon Al Arab | 39% | 2.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al Mokawloon Al Arab. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.65 – 0.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 79% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 0–020.6%
- 0–119.2%
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tala'ea El Gaish 0| Tala'ea El Gaish line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 18% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 35% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 26% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.