Caldas
Louletano
The model leans Caldas at 50%. Expected goals: Caldas 0.94, Louletano 0.31. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 83%. Caldas won 0 of their last 3; Louletano won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Caldas | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 39% | 2.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Louletano | 11% | 9.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Caldas. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.94 – 0.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 87% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 96% |
| Both teams to score | Yes16% | No84% |
Most likely scores
- 0–028.9%
- 1–027.1%
- 2–012.7%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–04.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 70% · BTTS No 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Caldas −0.5| Caldas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 31% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 38% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 10% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.