Louletano
CF Os Belenenses
The model leans CF Os Belenenses at 61%. Expected goals: Louletano 0.29, CF Os Belenenses 1.56. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 80%. Louletano won 1 of their last 3; CF Os Belenenses won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Louletano | 6% | 17.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.97 | – | – | – |
| 2CF Os Belenenses | 69% | 1.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: CF Os Belenenses. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.29 – 1.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes20% | No80% |
Most likely scores
- 0–124.7%
- 0–219.2%
- 0–015.9%
- 0–39.9%
- 1–17.1%
- 1–25.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: CF Os Belenenses −1| Louletano line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| -1 | 1% | 6% | 94% |
| -0.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| 0 | 6% | 24% | 70% |
| +0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| +1 | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| +1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.