Predictions · Liga 3 Zona B · outside model coverage
CF Os Belenenses
5–0
Won
Santarem
The model leans CF Os Belenenses at 51%. Expected goals: CF Os Belenenses 1.45, Santarem 0.62. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match56
29
15
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1CF Os Belenenses | 56% | 1.78 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Santarem | 15% | 6.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: CF Os Belenenses. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.45 – 0.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–018.4%
- 2–013.3%
- 0–012.7%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–17.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: CF Os Belenenses −1| CF Os Belenenses line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 27% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 12% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.