CF Os Belenenses
Caldas
The model leans CF Os Belenenses at 60%. Expected goals: CF Os Belenenses 1.85, Caldas 0.58. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 62%. CF Os Belenenses won 3 of their last 4; Caldas won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1CF Os Belenenses | 67% | 1.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Caldas | 10% | 10.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: CF Os Belenenses. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.85 – 0.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.3%
- 2–015.1%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–09.3%
- 0–08.8%
- 2–18.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: CF Os Belenenses −1| CF Os Belenenses line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| +0.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
| +1 | 89% | 8% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.