Caldas
Lusitano de Evora
The model leans Draw at 36%. Expected goals: Caldas 0.77, Lusitano de Evora 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 68%. Caldas won 0 of their last 3; Lusitano de Evora won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Caldas | 29% | 3.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.66 | – | – | – |
| 2Lusitano de Evora | 34% | 2.95 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.77 – 0.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 78% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 0–019.7%
- 0–116.9%
- 1–015.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–05.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Caldas 0| Caldas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 21% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.