Lusitano de Evora
Atletico
The model leans Draw at 37%. Expected goals: Lusitano de Evora 0.79, Atletico 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 69%. Lusitano de Evora won 1 of their last 3; Atletico won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lusitano de Evora | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Atletico | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.79 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 79% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 92% |
| Both teams to score | Yes30% | No70% |
Most likely scores
- 0–020.4%
- 0–116.4%
- 1–016.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–26.6%
- 2–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 68% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lusitano de Evora 0| Lusitano de Evora line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 22% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 35% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.