Sporting Covilha
Atletico
The model leans Atletico at 39%. Expected goals: Sporting Covilha 0.66, Atletico 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 68%. Sporting Covilha won 1 of their last 3; Atletico won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting Covilha | 22% | 4.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.76 | – | – | – |
| 2Atletico | 41% | 2.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atletico. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.66 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes31% | No69% |
Most likely scores
- 0–119.0%
- 0–018.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 64% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico −0.5| Sporting Covilha line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 17% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 34% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.