Predictions · Liga 3 Zona B · outside model coverage
Atletico
1–1
Lost
Mafra
The model leans Atletico at 38%. Expected goals: Atletico 1.24, Mafra 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match41
31
28
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atletico | 41% | 2.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
| 2Mafra | 28% | 3.62 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atletico. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–08.4%
- 2–18.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico 0| Atletico line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 24% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.