Predictions · Liga 3 Zona B · outside model coverage
Sporting Covilha
2–0
Lost
Santarem
The model leans Draw at 37%. Expected goals: Sporting Covilha 0.69, Santarem 0.84. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 70%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match26
39
35
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sporting Covilha | 26% | 3.80 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 39% | 2.58 | – | – | – |
| 2Santarem | 35% | 2.86 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.69 – 0.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 80% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% |
| Both teams to score | Yes28% | No72% |
Most likely scores
- 0–021.7%
- 0–118.2%
- 1–015.0%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–27.6%
- 1–25.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting Covilha 0| Sporting Covilha line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 20% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 36% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 24% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.