Predictions · Liga 3 Zona B · outside model coverage
Oliveirense
0–0
Lost
Louletano
The model leans Oliveirense at 56%. Expected goals: Oliveirense 1.37, Louletano 0.28. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 81%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match65
29
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Oliveirense | 65% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Louletano | 7% | 15.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Oliveirense. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.37 – 0.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes18% | No82% |
Most likely scores
- 1–026.3%
- 0–019.1%
- 2–018.0%
- 3–08.3%
- 1–17.4%
- 0–15.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 65% · BTTS No 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Oliveirense −1| Oliveirense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 32% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 27% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 6% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.