Predictions · Liga 3 Zona B · outside model coverage
Oliveirense
3–2
Won
Vitoria de Sernache
The model leans Oliveirense at 55%. Expected goals: Oliveirense 1.94, Vitoria de Sernache 0.79. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match63
23
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Oliveirense | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.33 | – | – | – |
| 2Vitoria de Sernache | 14% | 7.37 | – | – | – |
Pick: Oliveirense. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.94 – 0.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.7%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.9%
- 0–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 46% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Oliveirense −1| Oliveirense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.