Al-Gharafa
Al-Shamal
The model leans Al-Shamal at 39%. Expected goals: Al-Gharafa 1.37, Al-Shamal 1.60. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. Al-Gharafa won 1 of their last 3; Al-Shamal won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Gharafa | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.77 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Shamal | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Shamal. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.37 – 1.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.0%
- 0–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Gharafa 0| Al-Gharafa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 18% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.