Predictions · Qatar Stars League · outside model coverage
Al-Gharafa
2–1
Won
Al-Shahaniya
The model leans Al-Gharafa at 39%. Expected goals: Al-Gharafa 1.37, Al-Shahaniya 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match42
30
28
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Gharafa | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Shahaniya | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Gharafa. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.37 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.6%
- 2–08.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Gharafa −0.5| Al-Gharafa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 18% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.