Al-Sadd
Al-Gharafa
The model leans Al-Sadd at 50%. Expected goals: Al-Sadd 2.54, Al-Gharafa 1.88. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 79%. Al-Sadd won 3 of their last 3; Al-Gharafa won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Sadd | 52% | 1.92 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Gharafa | 28% | 3.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Sadd. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.54 – 1.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 64% | 36% |
| Both teams to score | Yes78% | No22% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.2%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.7%
- 1–25.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Sadd −0.5| Al-Sadd line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 19% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 19% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 14% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.