Al-Sadd
Al-Ahli
The model leans Al-Sadd at 51%. Expected goals: Al-Sadd 2.92, Al-Ahli 1.96. Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 82%. Al-Sadd won 3 of their last 3; Al-Ahli won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Sadd | 57% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Ahli | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Sadd. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.92 – 1.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 2.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 72% | 28% |
| Both teams to score | Yes81% | No19% |
Most likely scores
- 2–16.4%
- 2–26.2%
- 3–16.2%
- 3–26.1%
- 4–14.5%
- 4–24.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 70% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Sadd −1| Al-Sadd line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 19% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 17% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 12% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.