Predictions · Qatar Stars League · outside model coverage
Al-Ahli
3–3
Lost
Lusail SC
The model leans Lusail SC at 47%. Expected goals: Al-Ahli 1.57, Lusail SC 2.08. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match28
23
49
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Ahli | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Lusail SC | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lusail SC. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.57 – 2.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.8%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–36.1%
- 0–25.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lusail SC −0.5| Al-Ahli line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 16% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 21% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 21% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.