Predictions · Qatar Stars League · outside model coverage
Al-Rayyan
1–0
Won
Lusail SC
The model leans Al-Rayyan at 50%. Expected goals: Al-Rayyan 2.22, Lusail SC 1.60. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 72%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match51
22
27
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Rayyan | 51% | 1.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Lusail SC | 27% | 3.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Rayyan. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.22 – 1.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–26.2%
- 2–05.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Rayyan −0.5| Al-Rayyan line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 20% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 20% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 15% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.