Predictions · Qatar Stars League · outside model coverage
Al-Wakrah
1–2
Won
Al-Rayyan
The model leans Al-Rayyan at 50%. Expected goals: Al-Wakrah 1.45, Al-Rayyan 2.01. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match27
23
50
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Wakrah | 27% | 3.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.28 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Rayyan | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Rayyan. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.45 – 2.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.2%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 2–16.6%
- 0–26.3%
- 0–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Rayyan −0.5| Al-Wakrah line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 15% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 22% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 21% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.