Al-Shamal
Al-Rayyan
The model leans Al-Rayyan at 50%. Expected goals: Al-Shamal 1.41, Al-Rayyan 2.01. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. Al-Shamal won 1 of their last 3; Al-Rayyan won 2 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Shamal | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Rayyan | 51% | 1.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Rayyan. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.41 – 2.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.3%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–26.6%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–16.6%
- 2–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Rayyan −0.5| Al-Shamal line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 15% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 22% | 51% |
| +0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| +1 | 49% | 21% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.