Al-Arabi
Al-Shamal
The model leans Al-Shamal at 37%. Expected goals: Al-Arabi 1.70, Al-Shamal 1.75. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 69%. Al-Arabi won 1 of their last 3; Al-Shamal won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Arabi | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Shamal | 39% | 2.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Shamal. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.70 – 1.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.5%
- 1–05.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Arabi 0| Al-Arabi line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 19% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 22% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 19% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.