Al-Sailiya
Al-Arabi
The model leans Al-Arabi at 50%. Expected goals: Al-Sailiya 1.35, Al-Arabi 1.98. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%. Al-Sailiya won 0 of their last 3; Al-Arabi won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Sailiya | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Arabi | 51% | 1.95 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Arabi. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.35 – 1.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.0%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–16.5%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Arabi −0.5| Al-Sailiya line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 15% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| +1.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.