Al-Ahli
Qatar SC
The model leans Qatar SC at 42%. Expected goals: Al-Ahli 1.63, Qatar SC 1.99. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%. Al-Ahli won 1 of their last 3; Qatar SC won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al-Ahli | 31% | 3.22 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Qatar SC | 46% | 2.19 | – | – | – |
Pick: Qatar SC. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.63 – 1.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–35.7%
- 0–15.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Qatar SC −0.5| Al-Ahli line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 17% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 22% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.