Qatar SC
Al-Sadd
The model leans Al-Sadd at 47%. Expected goals: Qatar SC 2.22, Al-Sadd 2.70. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 84%. Qatar SC won 0 of their last 3; Al-Sadd won 3 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Qatar SC | 32% | 3.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Al-Sadd | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: Al-Sadd. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.22 – 2.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 2.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 72% | 28% |
| Both teams to score | Yes83% | No17% |
Most likely scores
- 2–26.6%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–25.9%
- 1–35.3%
- 3–24.9%
- 2–14.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 70% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Al-Sadd −0.5| Qatar SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 15% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 18% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 18% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.