Oxford United
Ipswich Town
The model leans Ipswich Town at 50%. Expected goals: Oxford United 0.80, Ipswich Town 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 57%. Oxford United won 2 of their last 5; Ipswich Town won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Oxford United | 20% | 5.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Ipswich Town | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ipswich Town. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.80 – 1.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.4%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–211.0%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ipswich Town −0.5| Oxford United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 15% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 27% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.