FC Porto
Moreirense
The model leans FC Porto at 67%. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.08, Moreirense 0.40. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 71%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Porto | 77% | 1.31 | 1.10 | 84% | −7 |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.46 | 7.50 | 12% | +6 |
| 2Moreirense | 5% | 19.31 | 23.00 | 4% | +1 |
Pick: FC Porto. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.08 – 0.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 2–018.2%20.0%
- 1–017.5%14.3%
- 3–012.6%18.2%
- 0–08.5%7.7%
- 2–17.2%8.3%
- 1–16.9%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Porto −1.5| FC Porto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| -1 | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| -0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| 0 | 77% | 17% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | FC Porto -2.25 | 31% | 3.19 | 1.98 | 49% | −17 |
| Asian handicap | Moreirense +2.25 | 69% | 1.46 | 1.88 | 51% | +17 |
| Draw no bet | FC Porto | 94% | 1.07 | 1.02 | 95% | −1 |
| Draw no bet | Moreirense | 6% | 15.77 | 19.00 | 5% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29% | 3.50 | 3.00 | 31% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 71% | 1.40 | 1.36 | 69% | +3 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.