Marítimo
Benfica
The model leans Benfica at 44%. Expected goals: Marítimo 0.85, Benfica 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%. Marítimo won 1 of their last 3; Benfica won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Marítimo | 22% | 4.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Benfica | 47% | 2.11 | – | – | – |
Pick: Benfica. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.85 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–011.0%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Benfica −0.5| Marítimo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 16% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 28% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 25% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.