Estoril
Arouca
The model leans Arouca at 36%. Expected goals: Estoril 1.73, Arouca 1.76. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estoril | 37% | 2.68 | 2.30 | 41% | −3 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.13 | 3.30 | 28% | −4 |
| 2Arouca | 39% | 2.59 | 3.00 | 31% | +7 |
Pick: Arouca. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 39%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 8,453 matches, fitted Sep 7. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.73 – 1.76 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–19.3%15.4%
- 1–28.2%9.1%
- 2–18.0%10.5%
- 2–27.1%7.7%
- 0–15.4%10.0%
- 1–05.3%11.8%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Estoril 0| Estoril line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 19% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 22% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 19% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Estoril -0.25 | 43% | 2.33 | 2.05 | 47% | −4 |
| Asian handicap | Arouca +0.25 | 57% | 1.75 | 1.80 | 53% | +4 |
| Draw no bet | Estoril | 49% | 2.03 | 1.67 | 56% | −7 |
| Draw no bet | Arouca | 51% | 1.97 | 2.10 | 44% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 | 1.70 | 55% | +13 |
| Both teams to score | No | 32% | 3.13 | 2.05 | 45% | −13 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.