Rio Ave
v
Pending
Sporting CP
The model leans Sporting CP at 69%. Expected goals: Rio Ave 0.66, Sporting CP 2.69. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 54%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default14
80
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rio Ave | 6% | 16.45 | 7.50 | 12% | −6 |
| XDraw | 14% | 6.98 | 5.00 | 18% | −4 |
| 2Sporting CP | 80% | 1.26 | 1.33 | 69% | +10 |
Pick: Sporting CP. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.66 – 2.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 0–212.7%
- 0–311.4%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–47.7%
- 1–37.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting CP −2| Rio Ave line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 5% | 93% |
| -0.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| 0 | 7% | 13% | 80% |
| +0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| +1 | 20% | 21% | 59% |
| +1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.