FC Porto
v
Void
Arouca
The model leans FC Porto at 68%. Expected goals: FC Porto 2.52, Arouca 0.60. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default78
15
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Porto | 78% | 1.28 | 1.24 | 74% | +4 |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.46 | 5.25 | 18% | −2 |
| 2Arouca | 6% | 16.26 | 11.00 | 8% | −2 |
Pick: FC Porto. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.52 – 0.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.0%
- 3–011.8%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–18.4%
- 4–07.4%
- 3–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Porto −2| FC Porto line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| -1 | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.