Rio Ave
v
Void
FC Porto
The model leans FC Porto at 63%. Expected goals: Rio Ave 0.49, FC Porto 1.98. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 66%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default21
72
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rio Ave | 7% | 13.50 | 8.00 | 12% | −4 |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.85 | 4.50 | 20% | 0 |
| 2FC Porto | 72% | 1.39 | 1.35 | 68% | +4 |
Pick: FC Porto. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.49 – 1.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes34% | No66% |
Most likely scores
- 0–116.7%
- 0–216.5%
- 0–310.9%
- 0–08.5%
- 1–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Porto −1.5| Rio Ave line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 7% | 92% |
| -0.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| 0 | 8% | 19% | 73% |
| +0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| +1 | 27% | 26% | 46% |
| +1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.