Famalicao
v
Void
Maritimo
The model leans Famalicao at 37%. Expected goals: Famalicao 1.05, Maritimo 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 64%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default40
35
25
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Famalicao | 40% | 2.50 | 1.68 | 55% | −15 |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.88 | 3.50 | 26% | +8 |
| 2Maritimo | 25% | 3.96 | 5.00 | 19% | +7 |
Pick: Famalicao. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.05 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.9%
- 0–016.1%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.5%
- 2–08.9%
- 2–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Famalicao 0| Famalicao line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 32% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.