Moreirense
v
Void
Braga
The model leans Braga at 54%. Expected goals: Moreirense 0.80, Braga 1.87. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match14
24
62
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Moreirense | 14% | 6.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Braga | 62% | 1.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Braga. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.80 – 1.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.9%
- 0–212.1%
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–37.5%
- 0–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 19% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Braga −1| Moreirense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 11% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 22% | 63% |
| +0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| +1 | 37% | 25% | 37% |
| +1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.