Estrela da Amadora
v
Void
Sporting CP
The model leans Sporting CP at 68%. Expected goals: Estrela da Amadora 0.76, Sporting CP 2.67. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 50%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match15
77
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estrela da Amadora | 8% | 13.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.52 | – | – | – |
| 2Sporting CP | 77% | 1.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sporting CP. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.76 – 2.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 0–211.6%
- 0–310.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–46.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sporting CP −2| Estrela da Amadora line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 6% | 92% |
| -0.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| 0 | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| +0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| +1 | 22% | 21% | 57% |
| +1.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.