Paderborn
Freiburg
The model leans Freiburg at 50%. Expected goals: Paderborn 1.41, Freiburg 2.05. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paderborn | 25% | 3.95 | 3.60 | 26% | −1 |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.33 | 3.60 | 26% | −3 |
| 2Freiburg | 52% | 1.94 | 1.95 | 48% | +4 |
Pick: Freiburg. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.41 – 2.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–29.3%11.1%
- 1–19.1%14.3%
- 0–26.6%9.1%
- 2–26.6%8.3%
- 0–16.5%10.0%
- 1–36.4%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Freiburg −0.5| Paderborn line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 15% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 21% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 22% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Paderborn +0.5 | 48% | 2.11 | 1.85 | 52% | −4 |
| Asian handicap | Freiburg -0.5 | 52% | 1.90 | 2.00 | 48% | +4 |
| Draw no bet | Paderborn | 33% | 3.04 | 2.63 | 35% | −2 |
| Draw no bet | Freiburg | 67% | 1.49 | 1.44 | 65% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 | 1.57 | 59% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 34% | 2.92 | 2.25 | 41% | −7 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.