Predictions · LaLiga ·
Barcelona
v
Pending
Rayo Vallecano
The model leans Barcelona at 60%. Expected goals: Barcelona 2.17, Rayo Vallecano 0.81. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain68
21
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | 68% | 1.48 | 1.08 | 87% | −20 |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.85 | 11.00 | 9% | +12 |
| 2Rayo Vallecano | 12% | 8.44 | 23.00 | 4% | +8 |
Pick: Barcelona. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.17 – 0.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.9%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–08.6%
- 3–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barcelona −1.5| Barcelona line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| +0.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
| +1 | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.