Deportivo Alavés
Villarreal
The model leans Villarreal at 38%. Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés 1.43, Villarreal 1.61. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Deportivo Alavés won 2 of their last 3; Villarreal won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Deportivo Alavés | 33% | 3.04 | 3.20 | 30% | +3 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.82 | 3.50 | 27% | −1 |
| 2Villarreal | 41% | 2.44 | 2.25 | 43% | −2 |
Pick: Villarreal. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 1.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Deportivo Alavés 0| Deportivo Alavés line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 18% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.