Atletico Madrid
Malaga
The model leans Atletico Madrid at 57%. Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 2.43, Malaga 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 62%. Atletico Madrid won 1 of their last 4; Malaga won 0 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, 1xBet_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atletico Madrid | 65% | 1.53 | 1.41 | 70% | −4 |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.13 | 5.13 | 19% | 0 |
| 2Malaga | 15% | 6.62 | 8.80 | 11% | +4 |
Pick: Atletico Madrid. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.43 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.0%
- 3–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atletico Madrid −1| Atletico Madrid line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 22% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 10% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.