Juventus
Milan
The model leans Juventus at 45%. Expected goals: Juventus 1.47, Milan 0.94. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 52%. Juventus won 5 of their last 6; Milan won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Juventus | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Milan | 23% | 4.36 | – | – | – |
Pick: Juventus. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.47 – 0.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.9%
- 0–18.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Juventus −0.5| Juventus line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 25% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 26% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.