Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Juventus
2–0
Won
Palermo
The model leans Juventus at 60%. Expected goals: Juventus 1.99, Palermo 0.68. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 57%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match67
22
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Juventus | 67% | 1.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Palermo | 11% | 9.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Juventus. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.99 – 0.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.8%
- 2–013.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–09.1%
- 0–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 14% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Juventus −1| Juventus line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| -1 | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.