Frosinone
Juventus
The model leans Juventus at 50%. Expected goals: Frosinone 1.07, Juventus 1.63. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Frosinone won 2 of their last 5; Juventus won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Frosinone | 24% | 4.20 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.71 | – | – | – |
| 2Juventus | 49% | 2.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: Juventus. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.07 – 1.63| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–07.2%
- 0–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 42% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Juventus −0.5| Frosinone line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 16% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 24% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.