Predictions · Coppa Italia · outside model coverage
Frosinone
4–1
Won
Juve Stabia
The model leans Frosinone at 55%. Expected goals: Frosinone 1.88, Juve Stabia 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match63
24
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Frosinone | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Juve Stabia | 13% | 7.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Frosinone. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.88 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.7%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.1%
- 0–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 46% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Frosinone −1| Frosinone line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 22% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.