Predictions · Coppa Italia · outside model coverage
Palermo
5–2
Won
Mantova
The model leans Palermo at 54%. Expected goals: Palermo 1.85, Mantova 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match62
24
14
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Palermo | 62% | 1.62 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Mantova | 14% | 7.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Palermo. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.85 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.4%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–07.7%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 44% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Palermo −1| Palermo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| -1 | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.