Predictions · Serie B · outside model coverage
Mantova
3–1
Won
Empoli
The model leans Mantova at 37%. Expected goals: Mantova 1.38, Empoli 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match40
29
31
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mantova | 40% | 2.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.46 | – | – | – |
| 2Empoli | 31% | 3.20 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mantova. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–07.6%
- 1–27.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mantova 0| Mantova line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 26% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.