Cagliari
Lecce
The model leans Cagliari at 42%. Expected goals: Cagliari 1.21, Lecce 0.76. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 61%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cagliari | 45% | 2.21 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Lecce | 22% | 4.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cagliari. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 7,169 matches, fitted Aug 31. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 0.76 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes38% | No62% |
Most likely scores
- 1–016.8%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–17.8%
stored: Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cagliari −0.5| Cagliari line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.