Louisville City FC
Hartford Athletic
The model leans Louisville City FC at 50%. Expected goals: Louisville City FC 1.66, Hartford Athletic 1.03. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Louisville City FC | 51% | 1.97 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
| 2Hartford Athletic | 22% | 4.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Louisville City FC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.66 – 1.03| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–17.0%
- 0–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 37% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Louisville City FC −0.5| Louisville City FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.