Predictions · USL Championship · outside model coverage

Oakland Roots SC

00
Lost

Miami FC

The model leans Oakland Roots SC at 50%. Expected goals: Oakland Roots SC 1.80, Miami FC 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%. Oakland Roots SC won 1 of their last 6; Miami FC won 0 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Oakland Roots SC52%1.92
XDraw25%3.94
2Miami FC23%4.41

Pick: Oakland Roots SC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.80 – 1.13
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.556%44%
3.533%67%
Both teams to scoreYes56%No44%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.9%
  • 219.8%
  • 109.7%
  • 208.7%
  • 126.1%
  • 016.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Oakland Roots SC −0.5
Oakland Roots SC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.530%70%
-130%23%47%
-0.553%47%
053%23%24%
+0.576%24%
+176%15%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.