Botafogo
Palmeiras
The model leans Palmeiras at 43%. Expected goals: Botafogo 1.22, Palmeiras 1.67. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Botafogo | 27% | 3.73 | 3.30 | 28% | −1 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.78 | 3.30 | 28% | −2 |
| 2Palmeiras | 47% | 2.14 | 2.15 | 43% | +3 |
Pick: Palmeiras. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 7,169 matches, fitted Aug 31. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.22 – 1.67 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–111.3%16.7%
- 1–29.5%11.1%
- 0–19.3%11.8%
- 0–27.8%9.1%
- 2–16.9%8.3%
- 1–06.8%9.1%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Palmeiras −0.5| Botafogo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Brazil| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Botafogo +0.25 | 46% | 2.20 | 1.93 | 50% | −4 |
| Asian handicap | Palmeiras -0.25 | 54% | 1.84 | 1.93 | 50% | +4 |
| Draw no bet | Botafogo | 36% | 2.74 | 2.38 | 39% | −3 |
| Draw no bet | Palmeiras | 64% | 1.57 | 1.53 | 61% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 | 1.70 | 55% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 43% | 2.33 | 2.05 | 45% | −2 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.