Mirassol
v
Pending
Palmeiras
The model leans Palmeiras at 40%. Expected goals: Mirassol 1.04, Palmeiras 1.38. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Brazil27
30
43
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mirassol | 27% | 3.71 | 3.25 | 29% | −2 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.38 | 3.40 | 28% | +2 |
| 2Palmeiras | 43% | 2.30 | 2.20 | 43% | 0 |
Pick: Palmeiras. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 1.38| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%
- 0–112.3%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–08.9%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–28.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Palmeiras −0.5| Mirassol line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 18% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 23% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.